Status: U Return-Path: Received: from noehlo.host ([127.0.0.1]) by mx-taint.atl.sa.earthlink.net (EarthLink SMTP Server) with SMTP id 1kL7BF5en3Nl36L0; Wed, 1 Oct 2008 15:43:31 -0400 (EDT) Received: from wsmarth-pelt.pas.sa.earthlink.net ([207.217.120.144]) by mx-taint.atl.sa.earthlink.net (EarthLink SMTP Server) with ESMTP id 1kL7BF2fr3Nl36L0 for ; Wed, 1 Oct 2008 15:43:31 -0400 (EDT) Received: from domrl-ground.atl.sa.earthlink.net ([207.69.231.199]) by wsmarth-pelt.pas.sa.earthlink.net with smtp (Exim 3.36 #4) id 1Kl7be-0003Cu-00 for merileek@earthlink.net; Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:43:30 -0700 X-ELNK-Loop: merileek@kerncommunications.com Received: from dukecmmtar01.coxmail.com ([68.99.120.48]) by domrl-ground.atl.sa.earthlink.net (EarthLink SMTP Server) with ESMTP id 1kL7BC3ea3Nl5vF0 for ; Wed, 1 Oct 2008 15:43:28 -0400 (EDT) Received: from merilee07cf8a9 ([68.15.13.44]) by dukecmmtar01.coxmail.com (InterMail vM.6.01.06.05 201-2131-130-106-20070212) with SMTP id <20081001194328.YBGJ11753.dukecmmtar01.coxmail.com@merilee07cf8a9> for ; Wed, 1 Oct 2008 15:43:28 -0400 Message-ID: Reply-To: "Merilee:::Kern Communications" From: "Merilee:::Kern Communications" To: Subject: SDBJ Date: Wed, 1 Oct 2008 12:43:13 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="multipart/alternative"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0AE9_01C923C3.44B2C050" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.5512 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.5579 X-ELNK-AV: 0 X-ELNK-Info: sbv=0; sbrc=.0; sbf=00; sbw=010; This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0AE9_01C923C3.44B2C050 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0AEA_01C923C3.44B2C050" ------=_NextPart_001_0AEA_01C923C3.44B2C050 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable San Diego Business Journal =20 Boom to Bust By MIKE ALLEN - 9/22/2008 San Diego Business Journal Staff=20 Despite a bloodletting of historic proportions on Wall Street last = week, veteran investment pros say the nation's financial system is still = alive and kicking.=20 Most interviewed agreed that the Federal Reserve Bank took the = correct action in bailing out American International Group Inc., one of = the world's largest insurance companies, as well as earlier moves to = rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and permit Lehman Bros. to fail.=20 "Clearly, we're a global marketplace today. It's important that = the United States, the largest investment market in the world, to have = investors' confidence," said Dick Woltman, chief executive at Girard = Securities Inc. in San Diego. "If we don't have confidence in our = markets, who will buy our bonds ... who will buy out debt?"=20 Not many were buying anything last week, as the bears ruled the = Street, sending the Dow down a net of about 800 points through the end = of Sept. 17.=20 Coming In Waves=20 The news seemed to come in waves, with the latest speculation = surrounding whether Washington Mutual Inc., the nation's largest savings = bank, would fold next, or if the contagion might affect more major = investment banks, such as Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs Group Inc.=20 Several investment advisors say the massive sell-off is creating = tremendous buying opportunities for some formerly high-priced blue chip = companies. Brent Wilsey, president at Wilsey Asset Management, noted several = stocks that have dropped to prices of several years ago, including Dow = Jones stalwart General Electric Co.=20 Wilsey was working as a banker selling investments in October 1987 = when the market took a far more serious fall, dropping about 22 percent = in a single day. In comparison, last week's decline wasn't that bad, he = said.=20 Wilsey said as of the end of August there's about $3.6 trillion in = cash and money market funds waiting to be invested.=20 Sometimes all it takes is the lack of bad news, and when the = market begins climbing, it could rise rapidly, he said.=20 John Messner, a principal in Messner & Smith Investment Management = Ltd. in San Diego, said while the market has been highly volatile this = year, it was worse in the 1970s, which he compared to Chinese water = torture.=20 It would go down by a large percentage for three days running, = then up for a day, then back down, and seemingly never let up, he said.=20 The market's recent steep declines, coupled with his firm's fairly = decent returns (its main portfolio is down by 6 percent), is helping = business, Messner said.=20 Yes, there's probably going to be more bank failures, but there're = also opportunities for buying shares of well run and growing companies, = particularly smaller firms with less than $10 billion in market = capitalization, he said.=20 "The balance sheet of a lot of these companies is quite solid," = Messner said.=20 Tony Cherin, professor of finance at San Diego State University, = said huge declines in the market shouldn't cause individual investors to = panic, particularly if they have a longer investment horizon.=20 This event points to the importance of asset allocation and = diversifying investments, he said.=20 "Stay the course," Cherin said. "Over the long run, over 10 years, = 20 years, the trend (in the stock market) has always been up."=20 Cherin quoted investment guru Warren Buffet on his dependable = strategy reacting to bad news: "He said, 'When others are greedy, be = fearful, and when others are fearful, be greedy.'"=20 "What he was saying is that times like this, there may be = excellent buying opportunities because there are a lot of stocks that = are now undervalued," Cherin said.=20 Cherin and several other professional investors lay blame for the = financial meltdown to the deflating housing market and extending easy = credit through subprime mortgages.=20 'Blame To Share'=20 "So many liberties were taken in the housing market," he said. = "There's blame to share among all the institutions, from the credit = rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's and Moody's Corp., to all the = lenders who engaged in this predatory lending, and to the investment = banks."=20 Frank Mercardante, a former manager for the Resolution Trust Corp. = the federal agency that sold of billions of dollars of assets held by = failed savings and loans, said the current financial crisis is = "significantly different but significantly worse" than the one that hit = the nation from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s.=20 "This one is far more global in terms of its outreach. This is = also not a situation that bears a simple solution," said Mercardante, = now the president of Discovery Bancorp in San Marcos.=20 Back then, the Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates to = historic lows, leading to heavy consumer spending and investment that = lifted the entire economy. "Consumers can't spend us out of this one," = he said.=20 "We're not through the worst of it yet." =20 ------=_NextPart_001_0AEA_01C923C3.44B2C050 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

3D"San

San Diego Business Journal

  

Boom to=20 Bust
By=20 = MIKE ALLEN - 9/22/2008
San = Diego=20 Business Journal Staff=20

Despite a = bloodletting of=20 historic proportions on Wall Street last week, veteran investment = pros say=20 the nation=92s financial system is still alive and kicking.=20

Most interviewed agreed that the Federal Reserve Bank took the = correct=20 action in bailing out American International Group Inc., one of = the=20 world=92s largest insurance companies, as well as earlier moves to = rescue=20 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and permit Lehman Bros. to fail.=20

=93Clearly, we=92re a global marketplace today. It=92s = important that the=20 United States, the largest investment market in the world, to have = investors=92 confidence,=94 said Dick Woltman, chief executive at = Girard=20 Securities Inc. in San Diego. =93If we don=92t have confidence in = our markets,=20 who will buy our bonds ... who will buy out debt?=94=20

Not many were buying anything last week, as the bears ruled the = Street,=20 sending the Dow down a net of about 800 points through the end of = Sept.=20 17.=20

Coming In Waves=20

The news seemed to come in waves, with the latest speculation=20 surrounding whether Washington Mutual Inc., the nation=92s largest = savings=20 bank, would fold next, or if the contagion might affect more major = investment banks, such as Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs Group = Inc.=20

Several investment advisors say the massive sell-off is = creating=20 tremendous buying opportunities for some formerly high-priced blue = chip=20 companies.

Brent Wilsey, = president at=20 Wilsey Asset Management, noted several stocks that have dropped to = prices=20 of several years ago, including Dow Jones stalwart General = Electric Co.=20

Wilsey was working as a banker = selling=20 investments in October 1987 when the market took a far more = serious fall,=20 dropping about 22 percent in a single day. In comparison, last = week=92s=20 decline wasn=92t that bad, he said.

Wilsey said as of the end of = August there=92s=20 about $3.6 trillion in cash and money market funds waiting to be = invested.=20

Sometimes all it takes is the = lack of bad=20 news, and when the market begins climbing, it could rise rapidly, = he said.=20

John Messner, a principal in Messner & Smith Investment = Management=20 Ltd. in San Diego, said while the market has been highly volatile = this=20 year, it was worse in the 1970s, which he compared to Chinese = water=20 torture.=20

It would go down by a large percentage for three days running, = then up=20 for a day, then back down, and seemingly never let up, he said.=20

The market=92s recent steep declines, coupled with his firm=92s = fairly=20 decent returns (its main portfolio is down by 6 percent), is = helping=20 business, Messner said.=20

Yes, there=92s probably going to be more bank failures, but = there=92re also=20 opportunities for buying shares of well run and growing companies, = particularly smaller firms with less than $10 billion in market=20 capitalization, he said.=20

=93The balance sheet of a lot of these companies is quite = solid,=94 Messner=20 said.=20

Tony Cherin, professor of finance at San Diego State = University, said=20 huge declines in the market shouldn=92t cause individual investors = to panic,=20 particularly if they have a longer investment horizon.=20

This event points to the importance of asset allocation and=20 diversifying investments, he said.=20

=93Stay the course,=94 Cherin said. =93Over the long run, over = 10 years, 20=20 years, the trend (in the stock market) has always been up.=94=20

Cherin quoted investment guru Warren Buffet on his dependable = strategy=20 reacting to bad news: =93He said, =91When others are greedy, be = fearful, and=20 when others are fearful, be greedy.=92=94=20

=93What he was saying is that times like this, there may be = excellent=20 buying opportunities because there are a lot of stocks that are = now=20 undervalued,=94 Cherin said.=20

Cherin and several other professional investors lay blame for = the=20 financial meltdown to the deflating housing market and extending = easy=20 credit through subprime mortgages.=20

=91Blame To Share=92=20

=93So many liberties were taken in the housing market,=94 he = said. =93There=92s=20 blame to share among all the institutions, from the credit rating = agencies=20 such as Standard & Poor=92s and Moody=92s Corp., to all the = lenders who=20 engaged in this predatory lending, and to the investment banks.=94 =

Frank Mercardante, a former manager for the Resolution Trust = Corp. the=20 federal agency that sold of billions of dollars of assets held by = failed=20 savings and loans, said the current financial crisis is = =93significantly=20 different but significantly worse=94 than the one that hit the = nation from=20 the late 1980s to the mid 1990s.=20

=93This one is far more global in terms of its outreach. This = is also not=20 a situation that bears a simple solution,=94 said Mercardante, now = the=20 president of Discovery Bancorp in San Marcos.=20

Back then, the Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates to = historic=20 lows, leading to heavy consumer spending and investment that = lifted the=20 entire economy. =93Consumers can=92t spend us out of this one,=94 = he said.=20

=93We=92re not through the worst of it=20 yet.=94

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