Status: U Return-Path: Received: from noehlo.host ([127.0.0.1]) by mx-various.atl.sa.earthlink.net (EarthLink SMTP Server) with SMTP id 1kq2Iplj3Nl36J0; Mon, 4 Aug 2008 12:15:21 -0400 (EDT) Received: from wsmarth-swift.pas.sa.earthlink.net ([207.217.120.253]) by mx-various.atl.sa.earthlink.net (EarthLink SMTP Server) with ESMTP id 1kq2Io6pT3Nl36J0 for ; Mon, 4 Aug 2008 12:15:20 -0400 (EDT) Received: from domrl-brush.atl.sa.earthlink.net ([207.69.231.198]) by wsmarth-swift.pas.sa.earthlink.net with smtp (Exim 3.36 #4) id 1KQ2iO-0000Gx-00 for merileek@earthlink.net; Mon, 04 Aug 2008 09:15:20 -0700 X-ELNK-Loop: merileek@kerncommunications.com Received: from dukecmmtar01.coxmail.com ([68.99.120.48]) by domrl-brush.atl.sa.earthlink.net (EarthLink SMTP Server) with ESMTP id 1kq2Ia4hy3Nl5vE1 for ; Mon, 4 Aug 2008 12:15:06 -0400 (EDT) Received: from merilee07cf8a9 ([68.15.13.44]) by dukecmmtar01.coxmail.com (InterMail vM.6.01.06.01 201-2131-130-101-20060113) with SMTP id <20080804161506.OXII8636.dukecmmtar01.coxmail.com@merilee07cf8a9>; Mon, 4 Aug 2008 12:15:06 -0400 Message-ID: <03a901c8f64d$42ac4540$0201a8c0@merilee07cf8a9> Reply-To: "Merilee:::Kern Communications" From: "Merilee:::Kern Communications" To: "Brent Wilsey" , Subject: Chuck Jaffee Markwatch story Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2008 09:15:05 -0700 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="multipart/alternative"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_03A5_01C8F612.96036BF0" X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.3138 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 X-ELNK-AV: 0 X-ELNK-Info: sbv=0; sbrc=.0; sbf=00; sbw=010; This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_03A5_01C8F612.96036BF0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_03A6_01C8F612.96036BF0" ------=_NextPart_001_03A6_01C8F612.96036BF0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ford-gm-shares-more-likely/story.as= px?guid=3D%7BAEB2EAB3-3B2C-46F8-8AAC-DE5F30905A2B%7D&dist=3Dmsr_1 =20 CHUCK JAFFE Stupid Investment of the Week Commentary: Ford and GM shares more likely to skid than make a U-turn=20 By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch Last update: 3:55 p.m. EDT July 25, 2008 BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- America loves a good turnaround story, the one = where the hero goes off track, gets down in the dumps and then finds a = way to rebound. It makes for good movies, but it seldom makes for good investments.=20 And in the case of Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Corp. (GM) , = two American corporate titans where everyone is rooting for something = good to happen, it also makes for a Stupid Investment of the Week.=20 Clearly, selecting these two automakers this far into the cycle seems a = bit like piling on -- there is no joy in watching the big domestic = automakers implode -- but the truth is that the companies' most recent = bad news has incited some investors to believe the worst may be over.=20 Moreover, when brand-name stocks like these get beaten to a pulp, = average investors sometimes confuse price with real value, and start = believing that any long-time survivor is automatically cheap when its = stock price is near or in single digits.=20 Stupid Investment of the Week showcases the conditions and = characteristics that make a security less than ideal for average = investors, in the hope that spotlighting troubled thinking in one case = will make it easier for investors to root out trouble elsewhere. The = column is not intended as an automatic sell signal, although it's hard = to believe that long-time shareholders in Ford and GM will have big = capital gains to worry about if they bail out now, as both stocks have = been in the dumps for ages.=20 While it's easy to see how far the mighty have fallen -- both have shed = enough value to have lost their megacap status and fallen into the = midcap range based on current prices -- it's also easy to see why = there's some measure of optimism about these stocks for the long haul.=20 Engine trouble For Ford, which on Thursday took a $9 billion quarterly loss due mostly = to a huge slug of write-downs, a positive future hinges on plans to = double the production of hybrid vehicles in 2009, plus the conversion of = three truck factories into small-car production facilities. Sales of the = Ford Focus show that the company can make a popular, fuel-efficient = small car, and Ford has a healthy international business.=20 With GM, there's also a good international story to tell. A new labor = contract promises to make the company more competitive with its foreign = rivals, more models are achieving 30-miles-plus per gallon of gas in = highway driving than any other manufacturer, and it has also made what = some analysts believe are great strides in the hybrid market.=20 In both cases, if the American market would suddenly warm up to the = domestic manufacturers, it could fire up a recovery. That said, despite = all signs that the quality problems that plagued the domestic car-makers = in the 1970s and '80s are long gone, American consumers still haven't = forgiven those past sins and come back to buying American.=20 The problem is that the good news for each company can be summed up in a = paragraph, while the bad news would require a book.=20 "These stocks have become classic value traps," says Morningstar analyst = David Whiston. "There's definitely a scenario where these stocks could = be worth much more than where they are trading today, but that doesn't = make that scenario likely right now, and it doesn't make the auto = companies a good bet. These are still businesses you don't want to own = right now."=20 Bumpy ride Rather than rewrite the whole book on the problems with these stocks, = investors should look at a few hot buttons that trump any buying case.=20 Simply put, no matter how much goodwill a corporate name carries, it's = hard to buy any stock where the trailing 12 months' diluted earnings per = share from continuing operations is a negative $82.19 per share and = where the company's total equity is a negative $41 billion (GM), or to = invest in a company that has short-term debt of roughly $170 billion = (Ford).=20 GM's debt issues are such that the stock is owned more by its = bondholders than its stockholders. That's a dangerous situation, because = Wall Street has a rich history with companies heading into bankruptcy of = protecting some interest of the bondholders and leaving the stockholders = with nothing.=20 And that's all before you factor in the economy, the lending crisis, = rising gas prices and how they all conspire to continue damping = bit-ticket sales for a year or more.=20 That's not to say either of the automakers is destined for bankruptcy -- = I'm decidedly not with the camp that feels such a move is inevitable -- = but investors still need to be aware; it's entirely possible that this = story ends up with the companies being recapitalized, the good brand = names surviving, but the shareholders holding the bag.=20 Having attended college in Michigan with lots of kids whose parents = worked at the Big Three -- and where the kids frequently hoped that = would be their path too -- there's no question that plenty of people in = the past would have told you they would plunk down their life savings to = buy Ford at $5 a share, or GM in the $10 range.=20 Today, they're looking longingly at the names, but letting some measure = of goodwill cloud their judgment if they still want to take the ride on = these auto stocks.=20 "It's just amazing how bad these companies are," says money manager = Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management in San Diego. "They're selling = cars, but not making any profits. There's no cash flow. Everything is = still stacked up against them. ... We want them to succeed and maybe = things would be different with a decent economy right now, but a great = name alone isn't going to cut it. There's no good reason to buy these = stocks now, and maybe ever." ------=_NextPart_001_03A6_01C8F612.96036BF0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ford-gm-shares-more-likely/st= ory.aspx?guid=3D%7BAEB2EAB3-3B2C-46F8-8AAC-DE5F30905A2B%7D&dist=3Dmsr= _1
 
 
3D"Chuck
CHUCK=20 JAFFE

Stupid=20 Investment of the Week

Commentary:=20 Ford and GM shares more likely to skid than make a U-turn

By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:55 p.m. EDT July 25, 2008
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- America = loves a good=20 turnaround story, the one where the hero goes off track, gets down in = the dumps=20 and then finds a way to rebound.
 
It makes for good movies, but it seldom makes for good = investments.=20
 
And in the case of Ford Motor Co. (F) and General = Motors Corp.=20 (GM) , two American corporate = titans=20 where everyone is rooting for something good to happen, it also makes = for a=20 Stupid Investment of the Week.=20
Clearly, selecting these two automakers this far into the = cycle=20 seems a bit like piling on -- there is no joy in watching the big = domestic=20 automakers implode -- but the truth is that the companies' most recent = bad news=20 has incited some investors to believe the worst may be over.
 
Moreover, when brand-name stocks like these get beaten to = a pulp,=20 average investors sometimes confuse price with real value, and start = believing=20 that any long-time survivor is automatically cheap when its stock price = is near=20 or in single digits.
 
Stupid Investment of the Week showcases the conditions = and=20 characteristics that make a security less than ideal for average = investors, in=20 the hope that spotlighting troubled thinking in one case will make it = easier for=20 investors to root out trouble elsewhere. The column is not intended as = an=20 automatic sell signal, although it's hard to believe that long-time = shareholders=20 in Ford and GM will have big capital gains to worry about if they bail = out now,=20 as both stocks have been in the dumps for ages.
 
While it's easy to see how far the mighty have fallen -- = both have=20 shed enough value to have lost their megacap status and fallen into the = midcap=20 range based on current prices -- it's also easy to see why there's some = measure=20 of optimism about these stocks for the long haul.
 
Engine trouble
 
For Ford, which on Thursday took a $9 billion quarterly = loss due=20 mostly to a huge slug of write-downs, a positive future hinges on plans = to=20 double the production of hybrid vehicles in 2009, plus the conversion of = three=20 truck factories into small-car production facilities. Sales of the Ford = Focus=20 show that the company can make a popular, fuel-efficient small car, and = Ford has=20 a healthy international business.
 
With GM, there's also a good international story to tell. = A new=20 labor contract promises to make the company more competitive with its = foreign=20 rivals, more models are achieving 30-miles-plus per gallon of gas in = highway=20 driving than any other manufacturer, and it has also made what some = analysts=20 believe are great strides in the hybrid market.
 
In both cases, if the American market would suddenly warm = up to the=20 domestic manufacturers, it could fire up a recovery. That said, despite = all=20 signs that the quality problems that plagued the domestic car-makers in = the=20 1970s and '80s are long gone, American consumers still haven't forgiven = those=20 past sins and come back to buying American.
 
The problem is that the good news for each company can be = summed up=20 in a paragraph, while the bad news would require a book.
"These stocks have become classic value traps," says = Morningstar=20 analyst David Whiston. "There's definitely a scenario where these stocks = could=20 be worth much more than where they are trading today, but that doesn't = make that=20 scenario likely right now, and it doesn't make the auto companies a good = bet.=20 These are still businesses you don't want to own right now."
 
Bumpy ride
 
Rather than rewrite the whole book on the problems with = these=20 stocks, investors should look at a few hot buttons that trump any buying = case.=20
 
Simply put, no matter how much goodwill a corporate name = carries,=20 it's hard to buy any stock where the trailing 12 months' diluted = earnings per=20 share from continuing operations is a negative $82.19 per share and = where the=20 company's total equity is a negative $41 billion (GM), or to invest in a = company=20 that has short-term debt of roughly $170 billion (Ford).
 
GM's debt issues are such that the stock is owned more by = its=20 bondholders than its stockholders. That's a dangerous situation, because = Wall=20 Street has a rich history with companies heading into bankruptcy of = protecting=20 some interest of the bondholders and leaving the stockholders with = nothing.=20
 
And that's all before you factor in the economy, the = lending=20 crisis, rising gas prices and how they all conspire to continue damping=20 bit-ticket sales for a year or more.
 
That's not to say either of the automakers is destined = for=20 bankruptcy -- I'm decidedly not with the camp that feels such a move is=20 inevitable -- but investors still need to be aware; it's entirely = possible that=20 this story ends up with the companies being recapitalized, the good = brand names=20 surviving, but the shareholders holding the bag.
 
Having attended college in Michigan with lots of kids = whose parents=20 worked at the Big Three -- and where the kids frequently hoped that = would be=20 their path too -- there's no question that plenty of people in the past = would=20 have told you they would plunk down their life savings to buy Ford at $5 = a=20 share, or GM in the $10 range.
 
Today, they're looking longingly at the names, but = letting some=20 measure of goodwill cloud their judgment if they still want to take the = ride on=20 these auto stocks.
 
"It's just amazing how bad = these=20 companies are," says money manager Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset = Management in=20 San Diego. "They're selling cars, but not making any profits. There's no = cash=20 flow. Everything is still stacked up against them. ... We want them to = succeed=20 and maybe things would be different with a decent economy right now, but = a great=20 name alone isn't going to cut it. There's no good reason to buy these = stocks=20 now, and maybe ever." 3D"End=20
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