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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dont-conned-thinking-there-recovery=
/story.aspx?guid=3D%7BDD152E8A-13D9-4CBE-B444-7BE9F3148685%7D

=20
PAUL B. FARRELL
Doomsayers warn: 'No recovery before 2010'
Wall Street's praying for new bull, but wishful thinking not enough for =
'09
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:19 p.m. EST Jan. 12, 2009
Comments: 340
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Dateline: 1720. Breaking news. =
One day, at the peak of its speculative frenzy, as the "South Sea =
Bubble" swept through Europe faster than the plague, an "unknown =
adventurer" in Britain ran this advertisement: "A company for carrying =
on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is."=20
The scam was originally reported in Charles Mackay's 1841 classic, =
"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," and updated =
by Forbes columnist and economist Gary Shilling in his annual "2009 =
Investment Outlook: 12 Strategies," to illustrate how little has changed =
between 1720 and today.=20

Investors never learn. And Wall Street knows it. That crafty 1720 =
ancestor of today's Wall Street investment bankers and Bernie Madoffs =
devised what we'd call an "IPO:" He "opened his office to crowds of =
investors at 9 a.m. the next morning ... closed at 3 p.m. after taking =
in a fortune ... then left that evening for the Continent ... never to =
be heard from again."=20
Warning folks: Wall Street's happy-talking bulls are now hyping economic =
recovery and a new bull this year. That's a slower, but equally lethal =
2009 version of that famous 1720 trick.=20
So first let's review Shilling's forecasts for 2009. He was amazingly =
accurate with his 2008 investment strategies. Expect the same in 2009 as =
he's part of a growing chorus of experts who believe "the worst global =
financial crisis and deepest worldwide recession since the 1930s will =
continue throughout 2009." His 12 strategies, with my notes:=20
  1.. Sell home-builder stocks and bonds.=20
  2.. If you plan to sell your house, second home or investment houses =
anytime soon, do so yesterday. (Yes, another 20% drop is coming.)=20
  3.. Sell some housing-related stocks.=20
  4.. Sell some consumer discretionary spending companies.=20
  5.. Sell most commercial real estate.=20
  6.. Sell some commodities. (But proceed "carefully:" Selling "some" =
securities, or buying, or actively trading in today's volatile markets =
demands a level of skill sets, savvy and sophistication most investors =
lack.)=20
  7.. Sell emerging-market equities.=20
  8.. Sell emerging-market debt.=20
  9.. Sell stocks in general. (Shilling's forecast of a "severe =
recession suggests that corporate profits, as defined by the Commerce =
Department, will fall 48% from their peak in the third quarter 2007 to =
the fourth quarter 2009, and drop 32% from 2008 to 2009. This forecast =
implies much weaker S&P 500 earnings than projected by Wall Street =
analysts and strategies" whom he says "tend to be overly optimistic, =
especially in recessions when analysts don't want to offend managements =
of the companies they follow with low numbers.")=20
  10.. Sell consumer lenders' equities.=20
  11.. Buy the dollar.=20
  12.. Buy, carefully, high-grade bonds.=20
No recovery in 2009? Not till 2010, or later? Shilling's not alone. But =
in the eyes of the Wall Street happy-talkers, he's just another =
dark-side bear vying for the title "Dr. Doom" in 2009.=20
Shilling offers 10 "sells" and two cautious "buys." The dollar's one: =
"The buck tends to have five-to-seven year moves, and the current one =
appears to have just started. With a global recession, the dollar is the =
safe haven, the best of the bad lot."=20
And as for bonds: While "the 27-year rally in Treasury bonds is over," =
the yields on "high-quality municipals, compared to super-safe =
Treasurys, make them interesting. The risk is that as the financial =
crisis continues, those spreads could get even bigger. And ratings may =
be cut as the recession strains state and local finances."=20
Another alternative: "Yields on investment-grade corporate bonds are =
very attractive relative to record low Treasury yields." So "buy =
high-grade corporate and municipal bonds, but carefully."=20
Will new bull be leading indicator of economic recovery?
Shilling is one of America's top economists. Sixteen months before the =
2007 meltdown he warned Forbes readers: "The current housing weakness =
will develop into a full-scale rout ... a bubble ... the house-price =
collapse will induce a painful recession that will send U.S. stocks into =
a tailspin." But the bigger question now: When will it end?=20
"If policymakers succeed in containing the mortgage mess and bailing out =
financial crises related to consumer borrowing, commercial real estate =
and junk securities -- and other potential financial problems -- then =
the recession may well end in early 2010 as massive fiscal stimulus =
begins to take hold ... if not, the slump probably will extend well into =
2010 and perhaps beyond, and might as well be given the label that such =
a long downturn deserves: a depression."=20
Contrast that with Wall Street strategists who make their living selling =
securities that generate big commissions and fees. They don't like the =
conservative forecasters. So it's no surprise that another regular on =
the Forbes investment team, Bob Froehlich, author of "A Bull for All =
Seasons" and chief investment strategist with Deutsche Bank's retail =
funds, recently dismissed Shilling as a "perma-bear" whose forecasts are =
"dead wrong."=20
But a year ago Froehlich predicted the market would stay above 14,000 in =
2008. And later Deutsche Bank's stock tanked from a high around $128 to =
a low about $22.=20
Yes, money managers are optimistic ... but 30% returns!?
The main reason Wall Streeters expect a new bull market in 2009 is the =
growing belief that the markets hit bottom back in November. Last week a =
Wall Street Journal article reported that "Suddenly, a Market =
Turnaround: Dow Is Up Nearly 20% From a Low, Other Markets More; Is It a =
Tease?"=20
That same day, in comes a "decidedly optimistic, opportunistic approach =
to the economic downturn and the effect it has had on the financial =
markets." The source: Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset =
Management. His "9 Reasons 2009 can Deliver a 30% Return for Investors" =
got my attention as I read Shilling's 42-page "Outlook for 2009." =
Wilsey's reasoning begins with the key assumption that we've hit bottom: =
The "market is forward thinking and can be ahead of the game by six =
months."=20
The contrast with Shilling offers an interesting counterpoint as you =
examine your own investment strategies for 2009. Assuming the market did =
bottom a few months ago, he predicts "the market could begin a strong =
rally in April. And even if the economy isn't going to improve until =
later in February 2010" he again extrapolates back six months predicting =
the "market could begin a strong rally in August" of 2009.=20
Then a huge leap of faith: "With companies trading at today's levels =
it's more important to be invested than to try and time the bottom." =
Bottom line: Start buying stocks now. Now? But first, examine the nine =
upbeat assumptions driving his 30% forecast, edited for comparison:=20
  1.. $12 trillion cash on the sidelines: Just 10% would be a $1.2 =
trillion investment.=20
  2.. Low interest rates: Cheap money usually has a positive effect on =
the economy.=20
  3.. Low stock valuations: Forward earnings P/E ratios on many =
companies are under 10.=20
  4.. Low consumer confidence: Low confidence often signals a rebound in =
a year.=20
  5.. Banking fundamentals improving: The banks are working through this =
mess.=20
  6.. Low gas prices: Add another $300 billion to $500 billion back into =
the economy.=20
  7.. Increased labor productivity: Companies become cost effective, =
boost stocks.=20
  8.. New president: Typically boosts confidence, optimism and spending. =

  9.. Federal money: And President-elect Barack Obama's ready to pump =
$1.2 trillion into the economy.=20
OK folks, the ball's in your court. Two opposing forecasts. But now you =
alone must decide on the direction of the market, economy and your =
investment strategy, facing so many "ifs," so many unpredictables.=20
Stop and ask yourself: Maybe you should ignore all predictions, =
especially any made by the Wall Street voices that got us in this mess =
in the first place. Maybe you should just wait, patiently, pray ... and =
do nothing.  
------=_NextPart_001_028B_01C97569.1F9B5820
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dont-conned-thinking-there-=
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IV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=3DDred id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_Dred><IMG =
class=3DColumnist=20
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_DredImage height=3D67 alt=3D"Paul B. =
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<DIV>
<DIV class=3DStoryHeadlineType=20
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_HeadlineType></DIV>
<DIV class=3DColumnName =
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_ColumnName>PAUL B.=20
FARRELL</DIV>
<H1 class=3Dstorytitle =
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_Headline>Doomsayers warn:=20
'No recovery before 2010'</H1>
<H2 class=3Dstorytitle =
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_Headline2>Wall Street's=20
praying for new bull, but wishful thinking not enough for '09</H2></DIV>
<DIV class=3DPageLinksTop =
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_PageInformation>
<DIV class=3DStoryHeadlineDetails=20
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_AuthorInformation>By <A=20
href=3D"http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=3D80+97+117+108+66+7=
0+97+114+114+101+108+108&amp;y=3DPaul+B.+Farrell&amp;z=3Dcharter.net&amp;=
guid=3D%7Bdd152e8a-13d9-4cbe-b444-7be9f3148685%7D&amp;siteid=3Dmktw"><FON=
T=20
color=3D#0000cc>Paul B. Farrell</FONT></A>, MarketWatch</DIV>
<DIV class=3DStoryHeadlineDetails =
id=3DStoryContent_TopPageNavigation_LastUpdated=20
style=3D"COLOR: #a3a3a3">Last update: 7:19 p.m. EST Jan. 12, 2009</DIV>
<DIV class=3DStoryHeadlineDetails id=3Dsynccommentslinkheader =
_extended=3D"true"><SPAN=20
class=3Dsyncwidget><IMG=20
src=3D"http://i.mktw.net/mw3/community/images/btns/icons/site/comments.pn=
g"=20
align=3DabsMiddle><A=20
href=3D"http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dont-conned-thinking-there-=
recovery/story.aspx?guid=3D%7BDD152E8A-13D9-4CBE-B444-7BE9F3148685%7D#com=
ments"><FONT=20
color=3D#0077c6>Comments: 340</FONT></A></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"CLEAR: both"><FONT color=3D#0077c6></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV id=3DHeaderSepDiv><FONT color=3D#0077c6></FONT></DIV>
<DIV id=3DStoryContent_ContentRail>
<DIV class=3DStoryTop>
<DIV class=3Dp id=3DwidgetInsert><B>ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) =
-- Dateline:=20
1720. Breaking news. One day, at the peak of its speculative frenzy, as =
the=20
"South Sea Bubble" swept through Europe faster than the plague, an =
"unknown=20
adventurer" in Britain ran this advertisement: "A company for carrying =
on an=20
undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is." =
</B></DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dclearall></DIV>
<DIV class=3DStoryBottom>
<DIV class=3Dp>The scam was originally reported in Charles Mackay's 1841 =
classic,=20
"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," and updated =
by=20
Forbes columnist and economist Gary Shilling in his annual "2009 =
Investment=20
Outlook: 12 Strategies," to illustrate how little has changed between =
1720 and=20
today.=20
<DIV class=3D"contentBlock phat"><!--
        phatpath=3Dnews/story/misc/mutual_funds.htm--></DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Investors never learn. And Wall Street knows it. That =
crafty 1720=20
ancestor of today's Wall Street investment bankers and Bernie Madoffs =
devised=20
what we'd call an "IPO:" He "opened his office to crowds of investors at =
9 a.m.=20
the next morning ... closed at 3 p.m. after taking in a fortune ... then =
left=20
that evening for the Continent ... never to be heard from again." </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Warning folks: Wall Street's happy-talking bulls are now =
hyping=20
economic recovery and a new bull this year. That's a slower, but equally =
lethal=20
2009 version of that famous 1720 trick. </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>So first let's review Shilling's forecasts for 2009. He =
was=20
amazingly accurate with his 2008 investment strategies. Expect the same =
in 2009=20
as he's part of a growing chorus of experts who believe "the worst =
global=20
financial crisis and deepest worldwide recession since the 1930s will =
continue=20
throughout 2009." His 12 strategies, with my notes: </DIV>
<OL>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell home-builder stocks and =

  bonds.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>If you plan to sell your =
house, second=20
  home or investment houses anytime soon, do so =
yesterday.</STRONG></SPAN> (Yes,=20
  another 20% drop is coming.) </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell some housing-related=20
  stocks.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell some consumer =
discretionary=20
  spending companies.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell most commercial real=20
  estate.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell some commodities.=20
  </STRONG></SPAN>(But proceed "carefully:" Selling "some" securities, =
or=20
  buying, or actively trading in today's volatile markets demands a =
level of=20
  skill sets, savvy and sophistication most investors lack.) </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell emerging-market=20
  equities.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell emerging-market debt.=20
  </STRONG></SPAN></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell stocks in general.=20
  </STRONG></SPAN>(Shilling's forecast of a "severe recession suggests =
that=20
  corporate profits, as defined by the Commerce Department, will fall =
48% from=20
  their peak in the third quarter 2007 to the fourth quarter 2009, and =
drop 32%=20
  from 2008 to 2009. This forecast implies much weaker S&amp;P 500 =
earnings than=20
  projected by Wall Street analysts and strategies" whom he says "tend =
to be=20
  overly optimistic, especially in recessions when analysts don't want =
to offend=20
  managements of the companies they follow with low numbers.") </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Sell consumer lenders' =
equities.=20
  </STRONG></SPAN></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Buy the =
dollar.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><SPAN class=3Dt003><STRONG>Buy, carefully, high-grade=20
  bonds.</STRONG></SPAN> </DIV></LI></OL>
<DIV class=3Dp>No recovery in 2009? Not till 2010, or later? Shilling's =
not alone.=20
But in the eyes of the Wall Street happy-talkers, he's just another =
dark-side=20
bear vying for the title "Dr. Doom" in 2009. </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Shilling offers 10 "sells" and two cautious "buys." The =
dollar's=20
one: "The buck tends to have five-to-seven year moves, and the current =
one=20
appears to have just started. With a global recession, the dollar is the =
safe=20
haven, the best of the bad lot." </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>And as for bonds: While "the 27-year rally in Treasury =
bonds is=20
over," the yields on "high-quality municipals, compared to super-safe =
Treasurys,=20
make them interesting. The risk is that as the financial crisis =
continues, those=20
spreads could get even bigger. And ratings may be cut as the recession =
strains=20
state and local finances." </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Another alternative: "Yields on investment-grade =
corporate bonds=20
are very attractive relative to record low Treasury yields." So "buy =
high-grade=20
corporate and municipal bonds, but carefully." </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dh3>Will new bull be leading indicator of economic =
recovery?</DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Shilling is one of America's top economists. Sixteen =
months before=20
the 2007 meltdown he warned Forbes readers: "The current housing =
weakness will=20
develop into a full-scale rout ... a bubble ... the house-price collapse =
will=20
induce a painful recession that will send U.S. stocks into a tailspin." =
But the=20
bigger question now: When will it end? </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>"If policymakers succeed in containing the mortgage mess =
and=20
bailing out financial crises related to consumer borrowing, commercial =
real=20
estate and junk securities -- and other potential financial problems -- =
then the=20
recession may well end in early 2010 as massive fiscal stimulus begins =
to take=20
hold ... if not, the slump probably will extend well into 2010 and =
perhaps=20
beyond, and might as well be given the label that such a long downturn =
deserves:=20
a depression." </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Contrast that with Wall Street strategists who make their =
living=20
selling securities that generate big commissions and fees. They don't =
like the=20
conservative forecasters. So it's no surprise that another regular on =
the Forbes=20
investment team, Bob Froehlich, author of "A Bull for All Seasons" and =
chief=20
investment strategist with Deutsche Bank's retail funds, recently =
dismissed=20
Shilling as a "perma-bear" whose forecasts are "dead wrong." </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>But a year ago Froehlich predicted the market would stay =
above=20
14,000 in 2008. And later Deutsche Bank's stock tanked from a high =
around $128=20
to a low about $22. </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dh3>Yes, money managers are optimistic ... but 30% =
returns!?</DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>The main reason Wall Streeters expect a new bull market =
in 2009 is=20
the growing belief that the markets hit bottom back in November. Last =
week a=20
Wall Street Journal article reported that "Suddenly, a Market =
Turnaround: Dow Is=20
Up Nearly 20% From a Low, Other Markets More; Is It a Tease?" </DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>That same day, in comes a =
"decidedly=20
optimistic, opportunistic approach to the economic downturn and the =
effect it=20
has had on the financial markets." The source: Brent Wilsey, president =
of Wilsey=20
Asset Management. His "9 Reasons 2009 can Deliver a 30% Return for =
Investors"=20
got my attention as I read Shilling's 42-page "Outlook for 2009." =
Wilsey's=20
reasoning begins with the key assumption that we've hit bottom: The =
"market is=20
forward thinking and can be ahead of the game by six months."=20
</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>The contrast with Shilling =
offers an=20
interesting counterpoint as you examine your own investment strategies =
for 2009.=20
Assuming the market did bottom a few months ago, he predicts "the market =
could=20
begin a strong rally in April. And even if the economy isn't going to =
improve=20
until later in February 2010" he again extrapolates back six months =
predicting=20
the "market could begin a strong rally in August" of 2009.=20
</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>Then a huge leap of faith: =
"With=20
companies trading at today's levels it's more important to be invested =
than to=20
try and time the bottom." Bottom line: Start buying stocks now. Now? But =
first,=20
examine the nine upbeat assumptions driving his 30% forecast, edited for =

comparison: </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<OL>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN class=3Dt003>$12 =
trillion cash on=20
  the sidelines:</SPAN> Just 10% would be a $1.2 trillion investment.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN class=3Dt003>Low =
interest=20
  rates:</SPAN> Cheap money usually has a positive effect on the =
economy.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN class=3Dt003>Low =
stock=20
  valuations:</SPAN> Forward earnings P/E ratios on many companies are =
under 10.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN class=3Dt003>Low =
consumer=20
  confidence:</SPAN> Low confidence often signals a rebound in a year.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN =
class=3Dt003>Banking fundamentals=20
  improving:</SPAN> The banks are working through this mess.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN class=3Dt003>Low =
gas=20
  prices:</SPAN> Add another $300 billion to $500 billion back into the =
economy.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN =
class=3Dt003>Increased labor=20
  productivity:</SPAN> Companies become cost effective, boost stocks.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN class=3Dt003>New =
president:=20
  </SPAN>Typically boosts confidence, optimism and spending.=20
  </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
  <LI>
  <DIV class=3Dp><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000><SPAN =
class=3Dt003>Federal=20
  money:</SPAN> And President-elect Barack Obama's ready to pump $1.2 =
trillion=20
  into the economy. </FONT></STRONG></DIV></LI></OL>
<DIV class=3Dp>OK folks, the ball's in your court. Two opposing =
forecasts. But now=20
you alone must decide on the direction of the market, economy and your=20
investment strategy, facing so many "ifs," so many unpredictables. =
</DIV>
<DIV class=3Dp>Stop and ask yourself: Maybe you should ignore all =
predictions,=20
especially any made by the Wall Street voices that got us in this mess =
in the=20
first place. Maybe you should just wait, patiently, pray ... and do =
nothing.=20
<IMG height=3D10 alt=3D"End of Story" =
src=3D"http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif"=20
width=3D10> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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