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http://www.suntimes.com/business/roeder/1305638,CST-FIN-curious30.article=


Best deals aren't at the malls=20
Comments=20

November 30, 2008=20

BY DAVID ROEDER Sun-Times Columnist
Pity the people who stormed the malls at the crack of dawn Friday. The =
discounts were alluring, but there are better deals to be had elsewhere, =
especially if you stay home and log on to a brokerage account. You could =
buy stock as a gift for the kids, and you don't have to get up at 5 a.m. =
for the privilege.

Some of the best stock-pickers I know are seeing terrific deals in blue =
chips. Independent research firm Morningstar, for example, has culled =
its analysts' recommendations and created a list of prospects for what =
it calls, aptly, the Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio. Recent additions =
to that list include Wells Fargo (WFC), ConocoPhillips (COP), WellPoint =
(WLP), Walt Disney (DIS), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) and Costco Wholesale =
(COST).

=20
A shopper totes a computer at a Wal-Mart in Oakland, Calif., on Friday. =
He could have done better, stock-pickers say.=20
(AP)=20
They join Morningstar favorites of long standing, such as Microsoft =
(MSFT) and General Electric (GE).

Many of the same names turn up on another favorite "tip sheet," the buy =
list maintained by Kovitz Investment Group. Kovitz likes close to 40 =
stocks, and recent additions to its list include Automatic Data =
Processing (ADP), Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Beyond stocks, William Kovacic, president of Kovacic Financial =
Associates Inc. in Palos Heights, said he's been putting clients into =
two closed-end bonds funds. They are Calamos Convertible Opportunities =
and Income Fund (CHI) and Calamos Convertible and High Income Fund =
(CHY). Even with understandable dividend cuts this fall, these funds =
still are paying yields of about 15 percent. I'll take 15 percent on my =
money over a department store discount any day.

CAR TALK: Shares of General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) have just had =
their best two-day trading period since 1980. The action came on the =
general consensus that Congress won't tell the bedrock American industry =
to drop dead, and that it probably will enact a bridge loan to carry the =
companies into the Obama administration. But the prospects for these two =
stocks still are troubling.

The auto business requires scale, focus and cost control. GM, Ford and =
privately held Chrysler LLC don't have it. Chrysler isn't even close and =
is probably a goner once the smoke clears. Buying GM is extremely risky; =
the bullish case is that it will downsize itself not only to get itself =
in shape for a government loan, but also to free cash to acquire the =
valuable pieces of Chrysler.=20

Ford may be the best bet of all. It's large enough to meet the demands =
of scale yet isn't lumbering and clueless. There's real progress in =
Ford's vehicle quality and in cutting the time it needs to get new =
designs to market.

DOWN ON THE FARM: Farmers who locked in prices for their crops last =
summer look like geniuses. Commodity prices in the last five months are =
in a free-fall because the global economic slowdown probably will cut =
demand across the board for grains, meat and dairy products. At the =
Chicago Board of Trade, locals who saw agricultural futures touch record =
levels in July now wonder where the bottom is. Both corn and soybeans =
futures have fallen about 50 percent since that time.

Economists are parsing out the effects on the world at large. First up =
is the farmer, expected to see a substantial hit in income. That spreads =
to companies such as the fertilizer producers and farm implement maker =
Deere (DE). Last week, Deere reported an 18 percent drop in quarterly =
profit.

DE shares, however, rallied on the news. Contrarianism is at work here. =
Deere stock already has been discounted, having fallen 63 percent =
year-to-date. Jumping into this sector makes some sense, as commodity =
prices are liable to rise again and farmers will find their situation =
isn't so bad because their costs are falling, as anybody who visits a =
gas pump can attest. In time, price trends will boost consumer spending, =
even if the days of easy-credit profligacy are over.

COLUMN STUFFER: The company is gone and the Thanksgiving leftovers still =
lurk in the fridge, but if last week's feast put you in an investing =
mood, one of Curious Investor's favorite non-Chicago investment experts, =
Brent Wilsey, suggests you can start by considering the trappings of the =
holiday. Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management, has "buy" ratings =
on the following companies that had a hand in Thanksgiving: ConAgra =
(CAG), Kraft Foods (KFT), Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO), Hormel =
Foods (HRL) and Constellation Brands (STZ).

CLOSING QUOTE: "No one can escape the gravity of what's going on in the =
global economy. It's too powerful, but we're approaching the point where =
the worst is fully in the stocks." -- Matthew Kaufler, money manager, =
Clover Capital Management, as told to Bloomberg News

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<H1 class=3Dstory_headline>Best deals aren't at the malls </H1>
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<A class=3D"IconOnTag IconComments"=20
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<P><!-- Article Publish Date -->
<DIV class=3Ddate>November 30, 2008 <BR></DIV><!-- Article By Line -->
<DIV class=3Dbyline>BY <A href=3D"mailto:droeder@suntimes.com"><FONT=20
color=3D#336699>DAVID ROEDER</FONT></A> Sun-Times Columnist</DIV><!-- =
Article's First Paragraph --><!-- BlogBurst ContentStart -->
<P>Pity the people who stormed the malls at the crack of dawn Friday. =
The=20
discounts were alluring, but there are better deals to be had elsewhere, =

especially if you stay home and log on to a brokerage account. You could =
buy=20
stock as a gift for the kids, and you don't have to get up at 5 a.m. for =
the=20
privilege.<!--dropend--></P>
<P>Some of the best stock-pickers I know are seeing terrific deals in =
blue=20
chips. Independent research firm <B>Morningstar,</B> for example, has =
culled its=20
analysts' recommendations and created a list of prospects for what it =
calls,=20
aptly, the Ultimate Stock-Picker's Portfolio. Recent additions to that =
list=20
include <B>Wells Fargo (WFC), ConocoPhillips (COP), WellPoint (WLP), =
Walt Disney=20
(DIS),</B> <B>Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)</B> and <B>Costco Wholesale =
(COST).</B><A=20
class=3Denlarge_pic=20
href=3D"javascript:dc_popup_win('http://www.suntimes.com/business/roeder/=
1306034,113008curious.fullimage', 'fullimage', =
'toolbar=3Dno,location=3Dno,directories=3Dno,status=3Dno,menubar=3Dno,scr=
ollbars=3Dno,resizable=3Dno,width=3D650,height=3D650')"></P>
<DIV class=3Dsidebar><IMG class=3DIMG style=3D"WIDTH: 165px; HEIGHT: =
116px" height=3D116=20
alt=3D"" hspace=3D10=20
src=3D"http://media1.suntimes.com/multimedia/113008curious.jpg_20081129_1=
8_01_04_75-116-165.imageContent"=20
width=3D165 align=3Dright vspace=3D10 border=3D0 ?></A>=20
<DIV class=3Dcaption>A shopper totes a computer at a Wal-Mart in =
Oakland, Calif.,=20
on Friday. He could have done better, stock-pickers say. <BR><SPAN=20
class=3Dcredit><EM><FONT color=3D#808080 =
size=3D1>(AP)</FONT></EM></SPAN> </DIV><!-- end poll --></DIV><!-- =
BlogBurst ContentStart -->
<P>They join Morningstar favorites of long standing, such as =
<B>Microsoft=20
(MSFT)</B> and <B>General Electric (GE).</B></P>
<P>Many of the same names turn up on another favorite "tip sheet," the =
buy list=20
maintained by <B>Kovitz Investment Group.</B> Kovitz likes close to 40 =
stocks,=20
and recent additions to its list include <B>Automatic Data Processing =
(ADP)</B>,=20
<B>Coca-Cola (KO)</B> and <B>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ).</B></P>
<P>Beyond stocks, <B>William Kovacic,</B> president of <B>Kovacic =
Financial=20
Associates Inc.</B> in Palos Heights, said he's been putting clients =
into two=20
closed-end bonds funds. They are <B>Calamos Convertible Opportunities =
and Income=20
Fund (CHI) </B>and<B> Calamos Convertible and High Income Fund =
(CHY).</B> Even=20
with understandable dividend cuts this fall, these funds still are =
paying yields=20
of about 15 percent. I'll take 15 percent on my money over a department =
store=20
discount any day.</P>
<P><B>CAR TALK:</B> Shares of <B>General Motors (GM) </B>and <B>Ford =
Motor (F)=20
</B>have just had their best two-day trading period since 1980. The =
action came=20
on the general consensus that Congress won't tell the bedrock American =
industry=20
to drop dead, and that it probably will enact a bridge loan to carry the =

companies into the Obama administration. But the prospects for these two =
stocks=20
still are troubling.</P>
<P>The auto business requires scale, focus and cost control. GM, Ford =
and=20
privately held <B>Chrysler LLC</B> don't have it. Chrysler isn't even =
close and=20
is probably a goner once the smoke clears. Buying GM is extremely risky; =
the=20
bullish case is that it will downsize itself not only to get itself in =
shape for=20
a government loan, but also to free cash to acquire the valuable pieces =
of=20
Chrysler. </P>
<P>Ford may be the best bet of all. It's large enough to meet the =
demands of=20
scale yet isn't lumbering and clueless. There's real progress in Ford's =
vehicle=20
quality and in cutting the time it needs to get new designs to =
market.</P>
<P><B>DOWN ON THE FARM: </B>Farmers who locked in prices for their crops =
last=20
summer look like geniuses. Commodity prices in the last five months are =
in a=20
free-fall because the global economic slowdown probably will cut demand =
across=20
the board for grains, meat and dairy products. At the<B> Chicago Board =
of=20
Trade,</B> locals who saw agricultural futures touch record levels in =
July now=20
wonder where the bottom is. Both corn and soybeans futures have fallen =
about 50=20
percent since that time.</P>
<P>Economists are parsing out the effects on the world at large. First =
up is the=20
farmer, expected to see a substantial hit in income. That spreads to =
companies=20
such as the fertilizer producers and farm implement maker <B>Deere =
(DE).</B>=20
Last week, Deere reported an 18 percent drop in quarterly profit.</P>
<P>DE shares, however, rallied on the news. Contrarianism is at work =
here. Deere=20
stock already has been discounted, having fallen 63 percent =
year-to-date.=20
Jumping into this sector makes some sense, as commodity prices are =
liable to=20
rise again and farmers will find their situation isn't so bad because =
their=20
costs are falling, as anybody who visits a gas pump can attest. In time, =
price=20
trends will boost consumer spending, even if the days of easy-credit =
profligacy=20
are over.</P>
<P><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000>COLUMN STUFFER: The company is gone and =
the=20
Thanksgiving leftovers still lurk in the fridge, but if last week's =
feast put=20
you in an investing mood, one of Curious Investor's favorite non-Chicago =

investment experts, <SPAN class=3Dhilite>Brent Wilsey</SPAN>, suggests =
you can=20
start by considering the trappings of the holiday. Wilsey, president of =
Wilsey=20
Asset Management, has "buy" ratings on the following companies that had =
a hand=20
in Thanksgiving: ConAgra (CAG), Kraft Foods (KFT), Martha Stewart Living =

Omnimedia (MSO), Hormel Foods (HRL) and Constellation Brands=20
(STZ</FONT>).</STRONG></P>
<P><B>CLOSING QUOTE:</B> "No one can escape the gravity of what's going =
on in=20
the global economy. It's too powerful, but we're approaching the point =
where the=20
worst is fully in the stocks." -- <I>Matthew Kaufler</I>, money manager, =

<B>Clover Capital Management,</B> as told to Bloomberg=20
News</P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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